Smile 2 aims to reignite box office spirits

A pulse in the horror genre

“Smile 2,” the latest installment of Paramount’s spine-tingling psychological thriller series, is set to shake up the silver screen. Anticipation is high, with the film projected to amass between $20 and $25 million across 3,500 North American theaters during its opening weekend. This range parallels the impressive launch of its predecessor, which opened to $22.6 million in 2022 despite initially being slated for a streaming release. That first film morphed into an unexpected blockbuster, raking in $105 million domestically and a staggering $217 million on a global scale.

Securing a strong start

Given the solid reviews for “Smile 2,” industry experts are optimistic that the initial ticket sales might even exceed $25 million. Yet, Paramount remains cautious, estimating a more modest figure in the high-teens range. They cite historical performances of horror sequels like “Don’t Breathe 2” and “It: Chapter Two,” both of which saw diminished returns compared to their first installments. It’s worth noting that the sequel came with a hefty $28 million production budget.

A gripping plot and stellar cast

Parker Finn returns to the director’s chair for “Smile 2,” promising to deliver another suspense-filled narrative. This time, the plot centers around a pop singer, played by Naomi Scott, who finds herself entangled in a series of unnerving events while on tour. Rosemarie DeWitt and Lukas Gage join the cast, adding depth to the eerie tale.

Critics have already heaped praise on the film, with one describing it as “a horror film that strives to create a genuine emotional center.” The movie’s ability to keep audiences “off balance” is highlighted as its strongest asset, suggesting that viewers are in for a rollercoaster of emotions.

2024: A shaky year for horror

Despite horror traditionally being a reliable genre for cinema-goers, 2024 hasn’t been as fruitful. The October box office has seen disappointments, with “Joker: Folie à Deux” failing to meet expectations.

After an 81% drop in its second weekend, the prospects for “Joker: Folie à Deux” remain bleak. With a budget of $200 million, it has only garnered $53.3 million domestically and $165.8 million globally over two weeks. Comparatively, the first “Joker” generated $96.2 million domestically and $248.4 million globally in just three days. Any hopes for the sequel matching its predecessor’s lifetime earnings appear increasingly improbable.

Other box office updates

• “Terrifier 3”: Last weekend’s unexpected winner, this ultra-gory slasher is forecasted to see a significant dip — about 65% from its initial $18.8 million opening. This would place its second weekend revenue around $6 to $7 million.

• “The Wild Robot”: Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s family-centric film continues to perform solidly, aiming for a $10 million take during its third weekend — a 30% decline from the prior weekend. So far, it has garnered $87.7 million in North America and $152 million on a global scale.

• “Anora”: This Palme d’Or-winning film by Sean Baker will make its limited release in six theaters across Los Angeles and New York City. The film, offering a comedic look at an exotic dancer and sex worker who marries a Russian oligarch’s son, is set to expand further through the autumn season.

A hunt for box office saviors

The cumulative underperformance has led to an overall year-to-date revenue that trails behind 2023 by 11.2% and lags 2019 by 26.4%. Hollywood studios and exhibitors are now pinning their hopes on “Smile 2” and the upcoming “Venom: The Last Dance” to revive a slumping fall season.

With major releases such as “Wicked,” “Gladiator II,” and “Moana 2” set for Thanksgiving, all eyes are on the next few weeks to determine if the industry can rebound and finish the year on a high note.

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