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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Original Song
JOKER: FOLIE A DEUX, (aka JOKER 2), Lady Gaga as Lee Quinzel, 2024. © Warner Bros. / Courtesy Everett Collection ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection Weekly Commentary (Updated Oct 14, 2024): The Oscar lineup for best original song always adds an extra layer of A-list talent to the ceremony, and this year looks to be no exception. That is if the Music Branch feels inclined to do so. Once again, we’re seeing some of the biggest names in music vying for the gold, one year after Billie Eilish and Finneas became the youngest two-time Oscar winners with “What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie.” Could we see some more megastars return to the Academy Awards stage?
One of the most pulsating contenders this year is Netflix’s “Emilia Pérez,” which boasts two songs vying for attention — “El Mal” and “Mi Camino.” Both tracks were crafted by the talented duo of Clément Ducol and Camille, with the film’s director, Jacques Audiard, co-writing “El Mal.” As if that weren’t enough, there’s even a possibility of a third song being submitted for extra recognition. Could it be the energetic opening number, “El Alegato,” performed by the charismatic Zoe Saldaña? With so many musical options, “Emilia” could undoubtedly increase its visibility, but will the strategists risk a vote-split?
Another exciting possibility in the race is Miley Cyrus, who co-wrote “Beautiful That Way” with Lykke Li and last year’s Oscar-nominated songwriter Andrew Wyatt (of “I’m Just Ken” fame). Fresh off her Grammy wins for Best Pop Solo Performance and Record of the Year for her smash hit “Flowers,” Miley might be on track to earn her first Oscar nomination. Could this be her year to conquer Hollywood, too?
Ed Sheeran is also in the discussion with his song “Under the Tree,” featured in Richard Curtis’ animated Netflix film “That Christmas.” Meanwhile, Pharrell Williams has not one but two tracks in the running — the title song from “Piece by Piece” and the catchy “Double Life” from “Despicable Me 4.”
We can also expect some viable contenders from the animated and photorealistic movie slate. Disney’s “Moana 2” and “Mufasa: The Lion King,” as well as DreamWorks’ surprise box office hit “The Wild Robot,” are poised to deliver songs that could enchant both audiences and Academy voters alike.
And let’s not count out Lady Gaga. Despite the underwhelming box office performance and critical reception of her film “Joker: Folie à Deux,” Gaga could still strike an Oscar nom with the film’s title track (if submitted). She’s an Academy Award-winning songwriter, after all, with the song “Shallow” from “A Star is Born.” And if anyone can pull off an Oscar nod under tough circumstances, it’s Mother Monster herself!
Look at the first prediction charts below, and return every Thursday for updates.
Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.
Image Credit: Shanna Besson And the Predicted Nominees Are RankPerformer & Film1“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) — “Mi Camino” by Clément Ducol and Camille2“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) — “Kiss the Sky” by Delacey, Jordan Johnson, Stefan Johnson, Maren Morris, Michael Pollack & Ali Tamposi3“Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — “Winter Coat” by Nicholas Britell, Steve McQueen, and Taura Stinson4“The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix) — “The Journey” by Diane Warren5“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) — “El Mal” by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques AudiardOscars: Best Original Song (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) Image Credit: DISNEY Next in Line RankPerformer & Film6“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) — “Folie à Deux” by Lady Gaga7“Moana 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) — “Beyond” by Abigail Barlow and Emily Bear8“Piece by Piece” (Focus Features) — “Piece by Piece” by Pharrell Williams9“Will & Harper” (Netflix) — “Harper and Will Go West” by Sean Douglas, Kristen Wiig & Josh Greenbaum10“Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures) — To be announcedOscars: Best Original Song (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) Other Contenders RankPerformer & Film11“Better Man” (Paramount Pictures) — “Forbidden Road” by Robbie Williams, Freddy Wexler & Sacha Skarbek12“The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions) — “Beautiful That Way” by Miley Cyrus, Lykke Li, and Andrew Wyatt13“Twisters” (Universal Pictures) — “Out of Oklahoma” by Lainey Wilson, Luke Dick & Shane McAnally14“Elton John: Never Too Late” (Walt Disney Pictures) — “Never Too Late” by Elton John & Brandi Carlile15“Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics) — “Sick In The Head” by Móglaí Bap, Mo Chara, DJ Próvaí, Adrian Louis Richard Mcleod, and Toddla T16“That Christmas” (Netflix) — “Under the Tree” by Ed Sheeran17“Queer” (A24) — “Vaster Than Empires” by William Burroughs, Trent Reznor, and Atticus Ross18“Challengers” (Amazon MGM) — “Compress/Regress” by Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross & Luca Guadagnino19“Cabrini” (Angel Studios) — “Dare to Be” by Andrea Bocelli, Gene Back, Giovanni Caccomo & Courtney Rodriguez20“Mean Girls” (Paramount Pictures) — “Not My Fault” by Alexander 23, Nell Benjamin, Jasper Harris, Megan Thee Stallion, Reneé Rapp, Jeff Richmond, Ryan Tedder, and Billy WalshOscars: Best Original Song (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) Eligible Song Submissions (Best Original Song) Image Credit: Roadside Attractions ** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
“Babygirl” (A24) — “Leash” by Sky Ferreira & Jorge Elbrecht “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures) — “Forbidden Road” by Robbie Williams, Freddy Wexler & Sacha Skarbek “Between the Temples” (Sony Pictures Classics) — “A Country Dance” by Joanna Sternberg “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — “Winter Coat” by Nicholas Britell, Steve McQueen, and Taura Stinson “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures) — “JEEZU” by Jeymes Samuel, Doja Cat and Kodak Black “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures) — “I Want You Forever” by Jeymes Samuel, D’Angelo, Jay-Z “Cabrini” (Angel Studios) — “Dare to Be” by Andrea Bocelli, Gene Back, Giovanni Caccomo & Courtney Rodriguez “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) — “Compress/Regress” by Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross & Luca Guadagnino “Cuckoo” (Neon) — “Gretchen’s Song” by Simon Waskow “Despicable Me 4” (Illumination/Universal Pictures) — “Double Life” by Pharrell Williams “Dìdi” (Focus Features) — “Stop Talking” by Joshua Cain, Jesse Johnson, Justin Pierre, Matthew Taylor, and Tony Thaxton “Elton John: Never Too Late” (Walt Disney Pictures) — “Never Too Late” by Elton John & Brandi Carlile “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) — “El Mal” by Clement Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) — “Mi Camino” by Clement Ducol and Camille “The End” (Neon) — To be announced “Exhibiting Forgiveness” (Roadside Attractions) — “Bricks” by Jherek Bischoff and Andra Day “Ezra” (Roadside Attractions) — “Ezra” by Adrienne Ackerman “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) — “In Time” by Rodrigo Amarante “I Saw the TV Glow” (A24) — “Claw Machine” by Haley Dahl “I Saw the TV Glow” (A24) — “Starburned and Unkissed” by A. G. Cook and Caroline Polachek “The Idea of You” (Amazon MGM) — “The Idea of You” by Savan Kotecha, Albin Nedler & Carl Falk “The Imaginary” (Netflix) — “Nothing’s Impossible” by Ian Axel & Chad King “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) — “Folie à Deux” by Lady Gaga “Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics) — “Sick In The Head” by Móglaí Bap, Mo Chara, DJ Próvaí, Adrian Louis Richard Mcleod, and Toddla T “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions) — “Beautiful That Way” by Miley Cyrus, Lykke Li, and Andrew Wyatt “Mean Girls” (Paramount Pictures) — “Not My Fault” by Alexander 23, Nell Benjamin, Jasper Harris, Megan Thee Stallion, Reneé Rapp, Jeff Richmond, Ryan Tedder, and Billy Walsh “Moana 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) — “Beyond” by Abigail Barlow and Emily Bear “Moana 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) — “We’re Back” by TBD “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures) — To be announced “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures) — “I Always Wanted a Brother” by TBD “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures) — “Ngomso” by TBD “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures) — “Summer Blue” by Nate Heller “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features) — “Piece by Piece” by Pharrell Williams “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features) — “For Real” by Pharrell Williams “Problemista” (A24) — “Huele a Fraude” by Stefa Marin Alarcon, Robert Ouyang Rusli, and Julio Torres “Queer” (A24) — “Vaster Than Empires” by William Burroughs, Trent Reznor, and Atticus Ross “Sasquatch Sunset” (Bleecker Street) — “The Creatures of Nature” by Josh Lambert, Yvonne Lambert, Toto Miranda, and David Zellner “Shirley” (Netflix) — “Why I’m Here” by Samara Joy and P.J. Morton “Sing Sing” (A24) — “Like a Bird” by Abraham Alexander, Brandon Marcel & Adrian Quesada “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix) — “The Journey” by Diane Warren “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” (Paramount Pictures) — To be announced “Spellbound” (Netflix) — To be announced “That Christmas” (Netflix) — “Under the Tree” by Ed Sheeran “Transformers One” (Paramount Pictures) — “If I Fall” by Brian ‘Are We Dreaming’ Tyler, Quavious ‘Quavo’ Keyate Marshall, Tyrone ‘Ty Dolla $ign’ Griffin Jr. & Nicholas James McGuinn “Trap” (Warner Bros.) — “Release” by Dot Da Genius, Elijah Fox, and Saleka “Twisters” (Universal Pictures) — “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” by Jessi Alexander, Luke Combs & Jonathan Singleton “Twisters” (Universal Pictures) — “Out of Oklahoma” by Lainey Wilson, Luke Dick & Shane McAnally “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) — “Even When I’m Not” by Delacey, Jordan K. Johnson, Stefan Johnson# The Oscar race for best original song: a deep dive into the 2024 contenders
As the 2024 Oscars draw nearer, the spotlight is on the best original song category, a competition showcasing the music industry’s top talents. With icons like Miley Cyrus, Lady Gaga, Pharrell Williams, and Ed Sheeran vying for the prestigious golden statuette, the stakes have never been higher.
The frontrunners: Analyzing the contenders
Emotive powerhouses
Within this year’s fierce competition, songs like “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell capture both critical acclaim and public adoration. Their hauntingly beautiful composition mirrors the film’s thematic depth, making it a compelling candidate for the award.
Pop giants and their anthems
Miley Cyrus and Lady Gaga have dominated the pop realm, each bringing unique storytelling prowess to their songs. Cyrus’s latest single, poised to make waves, combines her raw, gritty vibe with profound lyricism. Lady Gaga, known for her dramatic flair, offers a ballad that tugs at the heartstrings, a testament to her versatile artistry.
Watch the trailer for Barbie here
Innovative rhythms from unexpected places
Songs like “Kiss the Sky” from the animated movie The Wild Robot embody imaginative soundscapes. Crafted by Delacey, Jordan Johnson, Stefan Johnson, Maren Morris, Michael Pollack, and Ali Tamposi, this track blends electronic vibes with organic melodies, providing a refreshing experience that could stand out in the race.
Collaborations that astonish
The collaborative track “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (Netflix) sees Sean Douglas, Kristen Wiig, and Josh Greenbaum merging their strengths to create a nostalgic yet contemporary hit. This synergy of talent showcases how teamwork in music production can lead to groundbreaking results.
Behind the scenes: The Oscar selection process
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) holds a rigorous process for determining the winners of the Oscar for Best Original Song. With nearly 10,000 members from diverse branches including actors, musicians, and producers, the selection process is both comprehensive and competitive.
Key milestones in the Oscar timeline
The Oscar season follows a strict timeline designed to ensure a thorough evaluation process:
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting: Begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, and ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024
- Oscar shortlists announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Nominations voting: Begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, and ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting: Begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, and ends Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Exploring the artistry: What makes a song Oscar-worthy?
Technical excellence in music
The Oscar-winning songs often display an exceptional level of technical sophistication. This involves a meticulous blend of accurate vocal delivery, innovative instrumental arrangements, and professional-quality production values.
Emotional resonance and storytelling
A standout original song must resonate emotionally with the audience and often aligns closely with a film’s narrative. It augments the storytelling, turning pivotal cinematic moments into unforgettable experiences. For example, Elton John’s “Can You Feel the Love Tonight” in The Lion King may have resonated deeply due to its thematic alignment with the film’s core messages.
Authenticity and uniqueness
Oscar-worthy songs frequently bring a distinctive voice to the table. This unique quality can stem from the artist’s personal style, innovative musical techniques, or culturally significant sounds. Pharrell Williams, known for his eclectic approach, or Ed Sheeran, with his storytelling through music, have previously demonstrated these characteristics in their works.
Discover more about The Lion King here
The cultural significance of the Oscars
The Oscars transcend being just an award; they act as a cultural phenomenon, impacting music trends and industry standards globally. Winning an Oscar not only elevates an artist’s career but also leaves a lasting legacy in the music and film industries. It sets a benchmark for quality and often influences future projects.
Historical impact and future aspirations
Past winners have set high standards, with legendary tracks like “My Heart Will Go On” from Titanic. These songs not only clinched the award but became anthems representing entire eras. The forthcoming Oscars will continue this tradition, inspiring new talents and shaping the musical landscape.
Engaging the global audience
The global reach of the Oscars brings diverse musical styles to the forefront, uniting listeners from various backgrounds. This international appeal fosters a more inclusive musical dialogue, encouraging artists worldwide to aspire to these prestigious accolades.
Anticipation builds for the 97th Oscars
As the countdown to the 97th Oscars begins, anticipation only grows. The lineup of nominees promises an evening filled with memorable performances and celebrated triumphs. Each nominee brings their unique spark to the competition, ensuring a night of musical brilliance.
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